The importance of backtesting and sticking to a strategy
Hi all, I just wanted to share my trading experience with you so far, and maybe help some people who may be in the situation as I am. I started trading about 2-3 months ago. I started with baby pips, opened a demo account, and got cocky a couple weeks into it and made a live account with $100, and every other week or so put $20 extra in. (thank God I didn’t put it more than that). Today, my account stands at around $68, with a total P/L of -$131.76. I have been really uncomfortable losing money, even if it’s not a lot, and that uncomfortableness forced me to realize my mistake. I thought I could half ass a strategy and be a winner in forex, and the market humbled me extremely quickly. I actually didn’t have a strategy at all. It was a lazy mix of a bunch of different typical strategies I saw on YouTube. I also let my emotions get into trades, after a losing trade I would get back in the market in the opposite direction to try and make up for my loss. All bad, I know. I was too cocky. Just like anything difficult in life, you cannot half ass forex. I spent all of Friday testing an EXTREMELY simple strategy on 4 major pairs, and out of 93 total trades over the last 6 months, the win rate of my strategy is 73%. From now on, I vow to ONLY make a trade when my strategy presents itself. Moral of the story is, if you think you can half ass forex, you better wake up right now. Find a strategy, backtest it, and only trade said strategy. Have some discipline. Here is my extremely simple, backtested strategy with a 73% win rate that I got from The Trading Channel on YouTube: Indicators: 200 EMA Requirements: 2 wicks IN A ROW that TOUCH the 200 EMA, that have candle bodies that both close above or below the 200 EMA. If both candles close above the 200 EMA, go long. If both candles close below the 200 EMA go short. Stay extremely strict with the rules of the strategy. Here are the pairs that I have tested this strategy on over the past 6 months, that total a 73% win rate: -GBP/USD: 18/27 winning trades (67%) -NZD/USD: 15/27 winning trades (71%) -EUUSD: 15/20 winning trades (75%) -EUGBP: 20/25 winning trades (80%) All backtesting was done on the H1 chart. I tried on the daily and H4 charts but the frequency just wasn’t enough. In the video that I got this strategy from he was trying to highlight the importance of the frequency of your strategy. Even if it may have a really high winning percentage, if it only happens once a year it’s not a good strategy. Also on a side note, I’ve seen a lot of conflicting opinions on whether or not the US election will effect USD pairs, do you guys think the election will mess with my strategy this upcoming week, or should I just trade my strategy and pay not attention to the results of the election? Thanks for reading, and happy trading Sincerely, u/emopatriot
Profitable forex strategy: it is a type of instruction for the trader, which helps to follow a clearly verified algorithm and safeguard his deposit from emotional errors and consequences of the unpredictability of the Forex currency market.
Thanks to her, you will always know the answer to the question: how to act in certain market conditions. You have the conditions of opening a transaction, the conditions of its closing, likewise, you do not guess if it is time or not. You do what the trading strategy tells you. This does not mean that it cannot be changed. A healthy trading scheme in the forex market must be constantly adjusted, it must comply with the realities of current market trends, but there must be no unfounded arguments in it. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit
Types of trading strategies The forms of a trading strategy can combine a variety of methods. However, several of the most commonly used options can be highlighted.
Trading strategy based on various complementary technical indicators
Trading strategy using Bollinger Bands
Moving Average Strategy
Technical figures and patterns
Trading with Fibonacci levels
Candlestick trading strategy
Trend trading strategy
Flat trading strategy
Fundamental analysis as the basis of the strategy
Three most profitable Forex strategies
Important!These strategies are the basis for building your own trading system.Indicator settings and recommended pending order levels are for consultation only.If you do not get a satisfactory outcome in the test result or in a live account, that does not mean that the problem is the strategy.It is enough to choose individual parameters of indicators under a separate asset and under the current market situation.
1. “Bali” scalping strategy
This strategy is one of the most popular, at least its description can be found on many websites. However, the recommendations will be different. According to the author's idea, "Bali" refers to scalping tactics, as it facilitates a fairly short stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP). However, the recommended time frame is high, because the signals appear not very often. The authors recommend using the H1 interval and the EUR / USD currency pair. Indicators used:
Linear Weighted Moving Average. Period 48 (red line).
Important!Note that the indicators for the “Bali” strategy are chosen in such a way as to ultimately give an early signal.This gives the trader time to confirm the signal and check the fundamentals.
MA is one of the basics on MT4, the other two indicators can be found in the archive for free here. To add them to the platform, click on MT4: "File / Open data directory". In the folder that opens, follow the following path: MQL4 / Indicators. Copy the flags to the folder and restart the platform. Also Read: Make Money With Trading Conditions to open a long position:
Price penetrates the orange Trend Envelopes line from the bottom up. At the same time in the same candle there is a change of the orange line that falls to a growing celestial.
The candle is above LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear above the moving one. It is important that it closes above the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have a Skyline Trend Envelopes on a signal candle.
The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is green and is above the dotted line of the signal (that is, it crosses or crosses it).
We open a trade at the close of the signal candle. The recommended stop level is 20-25 points in 4-digit quotes, take profit at 40-50 points. https://preview.redd.it/t48d55s8faw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e93863745e74dec536178539817225767cbeb1c The arrow indicates a signal candle where a Trend Envelopes color change occurred. Note (purple ovals) that the blue line is below the orange line and goes upwards (in other cases the signal should be ignored). In the signal candle, the green DSS of momentum line is above the dotted line. Conditions to open a short position:
Price penetrates the Trend Envelopes sky line from top to bottom. At the same time in the same candle there is a change from the increasing celestial line to the falling orange.
The candle is below LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear below the mobile. It is important that it closes below the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have an orange Trend Envelopes line on a signal candle.
The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is orange and is below the dotted line of the signal (i.e. crosses or crosses it).
This profitable Forex strategy is weekly and can be used on different currency pairs. It is based on the spring principle of price movement, what went up quickly, sooner or later must fall. To trade you will only need a schedule on any platform and W1 time frame (although the daily interval can be used).
The bearish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
Open a long position early next week. Make sure to place a stop loss at 100-140 points and a take profit at 50-70 points. When it is midweek, close the order if it has not yet been closed at take profit or stop loss. After that, wait again for the beginning of the week and repeat the procedure, in any case do not open operations at the end of the current week. https://preview.redd.it/vuihnqspfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7641e9d7701911cc255c4f0c8a53e1660c35c9fe On this chart it is clearly seen that after each large bearish candle there is necessarily a bullish candle (although smaller). The only question is what period to take where it makes sense to compare the relative length of the candles. Here everything is individual for each currency pair. Note that a rising candle was observed followed by a few small bearish candles. But when it comes to minimizing risks, it is best not to open a long response position, as the relatively small decline from the previous week may continue. Conditions to open a short position:
The bullish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
We open a short position early next week. https://preview.redd.it/tv4zmf5ufaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61cd1dcfc4aebfa6f80343b6c51f7a6e46358602 The red arrows point to the candles that had a large body around the previous bullish candles. Almost all signals turned out to be profitable, except for the transactions indicated by a blue arrow. The shortcomings of the strategy are rare signs, albeit with a high probability of profit. The best thing is that it can be used in several pairs at the same time. This strategy has an interesting modification based on similar logic. Investors with little capital opt for intraday strategies, as their money is insufficient to exert radical pressure on the market. Therefore, if there is a strong move on the weekly chart, this may indicate a cluster of large strong traders. In other words, if there are three weekly candles in one direction, it is most likely the fourth. Here you also have to take into account the psychological factor, 4 candles is equal to one month, and those who "push" the market in one direction, within a month will begin to set profits. Strategy principle:
A "three candles" pattern (ascending and descending) formed on the weekly chart.
It is preferable that each subsequent candle was larger than the previous one. Doji is not taken into account (disembodied candles).
Stop is placed at the closing level of the first candle of the constructed formation. Take profit at 50-100% of the last candle, but it is often better to manually close the trade.
This strategy is universal and is usually given as an example for novice traders. It uses classic EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators for MT4 and Parabolic SAR, which acts as a confirmatory indicator. The strategy is trend. Most sources suggest using it in "minutes", but price noise reduces its efficiency. It is better to use M15-M30 intervals. Currency pairs - Any, but you may need to adjust the indicator settings. Indicators used:
EMA with periods 5, 25 and 50. EMA (5) in red, EMA (25) and EMA (50) in yellow. Apply to Close (closing price).
Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from bottom to top.
Parabolic SAR is located under the sails.
Conditions to open a short position:
Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from top to bottom.
Parabolic SAR is located above the candles.
The transaction can be opened on the same candle where the mobile crossover occurred. Stop loss at the local minimum, take profit at 20-25 points. But with the manual management of transactions you can extract great benefits. For example, close at the time of the transition from EMA (5) to a horizontal position (change of the angle of inclination of the growth to flat). https://preview.redd.it/4un92jlegaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=406a700c00722349622d031e20d0858e4196d18b This screen shows that all three signals (two long and one short) were effective. It would be possible to enter the market on the candle by following the signal (in order to accurately verify the direction of the trend), but you would then miss the right time to enter. It is up to you to decide whether it is worth the risk. For one-hour intervals, these parameters hardly work, so be sure to check the performance of the indicators for each period of time in a minimum span of three years. And now that you know the theory, a few words about how to put these strategies into practice. Ready? Then let's get started!
From the theory to the practice
Step 1. Open demo account It's free, requires no deposit, takes up to 15 minutes, and no verification required. On the main page of your broker there is for sures a button "Register", click and follow the instructions. An account can also be opened from other menus (for example, from the top menu, from the commercial conditions of the account, etc.). Step 2. Familiarize yourself with the functionality of the Personal Area. It won't take long. It is at the most user friendly and intuitive. You just need to understand the instruments of the platform and understand how the trades are opened. Step 3. Launch the trading platform. The Personal Area has the platform incorporated, but it is impossible to add templates. Hence, the "Bali" and "Parabolic Profit" strategies can only be executed on MT4.
Characteristics of an effective Forex strategy Reddit
And finally, let's see what makes a profitable Forex strategy effective. What properties should it have? Perhaps three of the most important characteristics can be pointed out.
The minimum number of lag indicators. The smaller they are, the greater the forecast accuracy.
Easy. Understanding your strategy is more important than your saturation with complex elements, formulas, and schematics.
Uniqueness. Any trading strategy must be "tailored" to your trading style, your character, your circumstances, and so on.
It is very important to develop your own trading strategy, but it is necessary to test a large number of already available and proven strategies. On the Forex blog you will find trading strategies available for download. Before using a live account, test your chosen strategy on the demo account on the MetaTrader trading platform. Conclusion. To successfully trade the Forex currency market, create your own trading strategy. Learn what's new, learn out-of-the-box trading schemes, and improve your individual action plan in the market. Only in this case, the trading results will satisfy you to the fullest. Success, dear readers! >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE Join the community for more articles on trading and making money on the Forex and Stock market. ------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------ Disclosure: This post contains affiliate links, if you click and make a purchase I may receive a commission - This has NO extra cost for you.
Hello. I am currently just about under a year in trading forex and I found a simple intraday strategy that I thought would work. Its just a simple ma cross and trendline break on the H1 and entry based on m15. The thing that im struggling with is that everytime i backtested my strategy i would have a win rate of 60-70%. About 100-200 entries backtested across different pairs. Proceeded on forward testing for about a week and I would get about the same result. Proceeded with real account with 0.5% risk, very good result still. But when i go on my real account with 1% risk i would hit stop losses at a rate of 90%. Would you guys have any idea why this is happening? Is it my psychology that comes into play or did i not do enough backtesting and demo testing? Its getting frustrating. I would like to just be consistent and not be emotional when I trade. Any input would help guys. Thanks in advance!
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
Immediate Aftermath : The more data we collect and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.
This is the updated first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline. ------------------------ The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes. Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series ------------------------ On Jan 30, Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports. On Jan 31, the US announced the category-I travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine. • "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line was breached from behind. And so little of credible data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview with ICPC on Mar 29. Also on Jan 31, the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
------------------------ On Feb 02, regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared on Twitter:
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.
On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying, it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future."          Also on Feb 03, Mr. Tedros of the WHO said there's no need for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.
Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique. On Feb 04, The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.
Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus. On Feb 06, Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League = Shanghai clique) Also, on Feb 06, as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days. Also, on Feb 06, a CDC-developed lab test kit to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned. On Feb 07, China National Petroleum has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video in Korean). Also Chris Smith is pissed. On Feb 09, Trump renews his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped." On Feb 10, Dr. Tedros said that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24. On Feb 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up. On the same day, Trump told Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan (钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said "the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action. On Feb 13, Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said:
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.
On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China. By Feb 13, China hasn't accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked. On Feb 14, CCP's United Front posted an article on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.
On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.
On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak. On Feb 24, China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. Also on Feb 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9. Also on Feb 24, China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre. On Feb 26, IF the picture that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month. On the same day, the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19. Also on Feb 26, the Washington Post published an article that says:
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.
On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing. On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others. Also on Feb 28, the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF) On Feb 29, quoting Caixin media's investigation published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
------------------------ On Mar 01, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law. On the same day,Princelings published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus. Starting on Mar 03, the US Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most. On Mar 04, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.
On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely. On Mar 07, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China. On Mar 08, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun. The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill. On Mar 10, the Washington Post published the article saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since. On Mar 11, the gentleman at the WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China. On Mar 13, the US admin declared a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19. Also on Mar 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging. On Mar 15, Business Insider reports that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following:
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.
On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously. Also on Mar 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope. On Mar 17, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed. — Click HERE, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up. Also on Mar 17, China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN), has produced YouTube videos for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events. Also on Mar 17, Al Jazeera reported that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry." • China's Xinhua News tweeted "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence." • Tucker Carlson asked: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?" • Also, Mr. Bill Gates: "We should not call this the Chinese virus." On Mar 19, for the first time, China reports zero local infections. Also on Mar 19, Al Jazeera published an analysis report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects." On Mar 22, Bloomberg reports that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000. On Mar 26, EURACTV reports that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent. ------------------------ On Apr 03, Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses. On Apr 05, New York Times says "Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)." On Apr 06, a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus." On Apr 07, the US CDC removed the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
------------------------ ☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together. ☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel. ------------------------ ☞ Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a ------------------------ ☞ Feasible Timeline of the Operation ------------------------ ☞ Go Back to the Short Story. ----
I just recently got into forex and found myself quickly overwhelmed with all the information. Doing some research, I found a video explaining a h1 scalping strategy where you buy only when the 8 minute moving average surpasses the 20 minute moving average and sell when it becomes the opposite. Is this a good beginner practice? I'm only in senior high school so I can't look at the charts for most of the day. Any comment or recommendation would be of great help :) Cheers!
You have a chart in front of you, a buy and sell button respectively, this basically gives you 50% of probability that if you open a buy or sell at any time your action will end up making money after sometime. "Sometime" adds new variables to the game and makes it more complicated: is knowing the direction for sometime, the market needs to move to increase profit or increase loss. You then go into the volatility reports for lets say EURUSD, and you see that during London session and New York session, it's the time where price statistically moves more, so there is where you want to be if you want to day trade (open and close trades in the same day), this can be also noticed if you zoom out for example M5 of almost any pairs, volume will be bigger in this two sessions. Ok so you have statistics of at what times it may move big, you also know that it may not move or it may range the whole day, but definitely there is going to be big moves. If you analyse the past, with only for example a 30 MA, you will see the 50/50. What else do you need? To be in most of the times you are humanly able following the trend, if price is averaging over any average you want and see useful to add, why would you bet that is not going to average oveunder it for some more time? Add a 1000 MA, what if you waited for each cross and traded it trend following? Here then comes a "must": money management = risk = stay in the game for long = you can lose multiple times and long term it's hard that you even lose 10% of your account. Start with the minimum risk, demo in 0.01. Why? If you can consistently win with 0.01 it's just a matter of optimizing the statistics your demo trading over time has thrown, money will come, lots of it, the amount your confidence as a trader can bear and ultimately because trading is so big and involves almost all of the aspects of your life and personality, your confidence as a human being can bear. But this is skipping to psychology. So, volatility, an average of some x periods to get the trend (not of the market but of the x periods in relation to the market and time, x is important, x can't be 2000 in M5), money management and time to play. What else? When will you close the trades? There are multiple ways each one with pros and cons, price crossing the average (too slow sometimes), price hitting fibos (gotta have a method for plotting fibos the same time each time, check the "Do it yourself" section, 61.8 a.k.a 0.618 and 61.8, god made numbers), being this last one the one I like. Price plays with these levels, nothing magical about it, is just "nature", a forgotten and violated term these days IMHO. There it is, when to open with probability, when to close methodically, how to play your money so you last as long as you don't fail too much repeatedly. This results after studying Ralph Elliot's, W Gann's, Wykcoff's, Pesavento's, Gartley's, Carney's and some others WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET. They all found structure in price actions over time, they all understood natural patterns that occur, they all sat in front of some charts, used or created tools for handling those charts, in the end everything is so simple and easy that our minds, past, maybe present, the t.v, Instagram won't lets us succeed. Why? Your mind is your biggest enemy of what you want to do in life. How? Your past in someway defines you, defines what you are looking for in life. Psychology, establishment and relativity. Mark Douglas introduced me (in his videos) to a new way of thinking towards trading. He speaks about beliefs, how they drives us in each decision we make each day from as simple as making coffee, having a bath, dressing nice or dressing in the first place. Beliefs are what makes your past define you today and tomorrow if you keep believing them. A wrong belief of yourself, a wrong belief of the world outside your eyes, a wrong belief of the market (you keep trusting other people about the market, in the end after loosing you trust no one), this leads to what lot's of gurus outside the financial world, will say: trust in yourself. Forex gurus tell you to trust them, pay them so they'll unveil the secrets. No money can change your wrong mindset, that feeling in your chest each time you think about possibilities with Forex (euphoria, dangerous as f not only in forex), that belief that some magical indicator will come, some hidden code of some pro advanced indi if you are more realist, some guy with the answer. You are very alone in this world my friend, money will tear countries apart, cities apart, families apart. People will sell their face for some money, their name, in the end corrupt politicians that don't get caught will enjoy their feasts everyday, with their innocent childs, who see their daddy as their hero, this is not a fair world, what's fair in the first place? A human creation so we can live together in peace, but that's not reality we all know. We are evoluted chimps, we still feel what the cheetah feel's in front of his prey, we share 90% of DNA with most of mammals, as intelligent as we like to think we are, we can't delete our nature, our hunger, our fear, our needs, our instinct (the one rushes adrenaline when you know you are losing too much), because deep inside we all know whats right or wrong, the difference between people is whether you hear that voice, or you shut it with a nicer version. 90% of people in forex (not real statistics, the real number varies from broker hmmm brokers another shady topic), prefers the nice version long term, which results not profitable basically. It's your version (you + all gurus you've seen) not the version the market shows and the deep-you tries to alert. I headed far from an important topic: gurus telling to trust them, a killer market killing you, lots of misinformation around the WWW and you not believing in yourself. What else do you have to face the markets? You are in a triangle: broker (not so hard to get a nice one), market and yourself. Everything else is a lie until the person who is in any way selling you stuff, shows you his profitable record of more than 6 months in any financial instrument, that you look at yourself in the mirror and you can say I trust him, not I want to trust him (even if it's some of each, but hey everything involves risk). LOOK AT THE CHARTS. Want to have "fast money" (intraday), look M1 to M30, even H1 for a bird's view, optimize your profitable and consistent demo results to that market; want to look charts once a day, trade D1, I'd say you don't even have to look at something bigger as it is big enough and you can go to H4 or H1 for finesse entries (can become a vicious circle, how much finesse is finesse?). It's all about trust, confidence and a good plan. Psychology of yourself is so vast, and so unique to each person that I would dare to say that if you are looking for the answer outside of you, you better befriend a trader who is today making money and pray that he literally gifts you his confidence (not his knowledge even if it can help, hi will be sharing his confidence). Your social mind will spawn the hype, the euphoria, you will succeed for a while, market will kill you sooner or later, you will help the market to kill your account. Why? Because your confidence wasn't real, it may be that that day, that week the market moved nicely, or you felt strong and super. How many gurus go live and say "hey today, as a human being, I don't feel great, I would not trade today?" none. They say market is not right ATM, cherry picking, they totally exploit that you can't go inside their screens and really know them, here comes the version you want to believe, you will tell yourself anything, you will tell anyone anything. Here to finish, I'll say that consistency in anything in life starts from yourself. If you can't be consistent everyday with yourself for a long period of time, you will find temporary jobs, temporary stuff, you will keep jumping from gurus, from strategies, you will create better versions on your head, just imagine what version a guru must have created to go and sell forex related stuff instead of searching for how to kill the markets, he may be doing both, in the end none of that will give you anything, you will end up being the stair to the gurus goals. Try to comprehend how human we are, how arrogant we are from a farmers perspective, how or evolution results in our minds plays us tricks, to think the government is real, to think there's order, justice, to think that we can achieve huge things with the help of YouTube videos or paying another human being, the market is flow, manipulation is real (why call it manipulation when you would be doing the same in their shoes(big boys)) is part of the nature of anything you plot with Y and X axis (look for a graph of population changes, harmonics, double bottoms, double tops, in a population changes graph? how can that be?), it may be a cliche but is aaaaaaall an illusion guys, the truth is not good business for the other side of the trades. See you on the other side. "I'll be a big noise with all the big boys"
Dear Traders, My name is Ludovico and I am an associate of Horizon Trading team. Today, I would like to share with you a scalping technique that will give you an advantage in following price action fluctuations. Most importantly, this article will focus on fast timeframes trading tactics, how to spot important key levels and trigger your positions. So, do scalping and price action go well together? Considering that price action aims to predict what price is doing right now and where is heading, fast mindset and quick analysis become crucial; scalp trading is about the same thing. A scalp trade will take approximately 1 to 30 minutes, so to be effective and consistent in this discipline one must be reacting rapidly to price movements. Therefore, scalp requires quick analysis, quick responses and quick decisions, and at its core there is price action, which as well is all about speed and efficiency. Now let s move on today’s topic on how to steadily understand fast trading potential earning set ups and to become a killer scalper.
What is scalping trading?
Scalping is a trading style that specialize in profiting off small price changes. It requires high level of concentration, because, due to its speed, a trader must have a strict entry exit strategy, otherwise one large loss could cancel all the many small gains in a blink of an eye. The main features of scalping are: Less exposure, lesser risk: A smaller exposure to price fluctuation will reduce the odds to run into adverse events. Smaller moves are easier to forecast: Because like every market forex works on principles of supply and demands, a higher imbalance is needed to generate bigger price changes. Smaller fluctuations are more regular than wider ones: Even in days when markets tend to less volatile, working with smaller timeframes such as (M1, M5, M15 & M30) will still grant chance of earning more frequently. While swing trading relies on big price moves, therefore aiming for long trend following a scalper will trade that fluctuation continuously. Price action comes into play here, a solid scalp trader must be very aware of level of support and resistance and when the price could bounce off. See image Below: Figure 1: Support & Resistance, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019 In order to better find these areas a comparison between timeframes is necessary considering that is always advantageous to highlights the most recent zones of support & resistance (2 to 5 previous days) Once understanding levels strategy become easier to follow, let’s find out.
Simple scalping and Horizon X scalping pattern
When trading trends continuously, important is to gauge market signals which indicate the trend is strong, opening to new potential earning scenarios for investors. When noticing price is coming back to retest important key levels forming pullbacks, a trader should always look out for entry-points.
Scalp traders must focus on key resistance and support level to find entry point while trading pullbacks. Here at Trading Academy we developed a system, based on fast moving price action that will enable traders to have successful daily session. We based our method on understanding where big money players come into action and by following their liquidity volume open winning positions. Horizon X is based on several scalping price patterns which find their fundamentals in risk and money management, key levels and entry points. See image below: Figure 2:Scalp trading pullbacks, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019) In the picture above I highlight the principle of trading pullbacks in M1 timeframe, this method relies on entering the market in specific hot spot key levels. Even though many traders globally do not take into consideration risk management, our vision is that while scalp trade, investors should follow clear objective rules to be effective, here is one of our coral patterns and its trade management rules.
Horizon X Pattern #3
This pattern aims to gauge momentums, big money players moves, consisting in fast formation of large body candle sticks (black bearish/white bullish) Figure3: Pattern #3 configuration To be formed Pattern #3 require several steps to be accomplished by the market before we can enter our position with confidence:
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
Large candles (bodies)
Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
Candles close its high/lows of the move
Within this first part price level is conditioned by the presence of many buyers on one side and sellers on the other stabilizing the price in a narrow range while building up important structure.
Small candles, at least 3
Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles
Second Momentum (breaking the price level at consolidation) – can be bearish or bullish depending on scenario)
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
Large candles (bodies)
Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
Candles close its high/lows of the move
Price is coming back to retest level at the previous consolidation level and when fractal is formed market is giving investors hints that a good spot to open a position is coming up.
Small candles, at least 3
Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles
Entering the market
Pattern #3 can be traded by entering the market within the retesting price area at consolidation level, however the tactics would be based more on aggressivity of trader personality and behaviour. In this booklet we will describe the most commonly used one. Entering in consolidation structure Market needs more liquidity for further movement and is going deeper toward the structure taking stop losses of weak traders. Smarter investors, however, use these stop losses for their position gaining, entering the market when a fractal is formed. See image below: Figure 4: Pattern #3, entering market at consolidation structure, USDCHF H1 (22nd July 2019) Entering at consolidation boarder Price touches edges of consolidation and starts to reverse. We would like to open position when fractal is formed. See image below: Figure 5: Pattern #3, market entry at consolidation border, GBPUSD M1 (14th Mar 2019)
Entering after false break out
Severe stop-loss testing. Big players move price aggressively till the point that it breaks consolidation structure. This is a perfect situation for major traders to enter the market, pushing the price towards its original direction. We will conservatively open trade when the price level reaches back consolidation, forming a fractal. See image below: Figure 6: Pattern #3, market entry after false break out, GBPUSD M1 (6th June 2019)
Similarly, we can use 4 elementary exit strategies of our Horizon X Pattern #3.
We will aim for a high structure level from higher timeframes (very good as a second take profit).
For 1-minute timeframe we will take half of our position with 10 points profit as a target and put our stop-loss on break-even for the rest of the position.
Our take profit is based on having ATR 80 %.
Rule of safety. Our first take profit is set to risk-reward ratio 1:1 with a half of position. When the take profit is hit, we are in a risk-free position for the second target.
On the other hand, stop losses will be always places on top of the entry structure to avoid important losses which will likely vanish all the trader day effort.
Hello! My name is Chris, and I'm trying to make trading a primary source of income. Although I would prefer to trade in many different markets, I feel that forex serves as an excellent starting point. Now, I understand that the vast majority of traders aren't profitable, and actually lose everything they have in their trading account. And I'm trying to avoid that myself. So, I have decided not to trade with real money at all until I am fully confident in at least one strategy and am proficient in executing it without straying from its rules and parameters. At this point in time, I am actively looking for strategies that are simple, (no more than three indicators) and directional (obviously). I plan not to ever trade without a stop loss, and I do not accept any strategies that don't offer a 2:1 reward/risk ratio (ex. max profit = 20 pips, max loss = 10 pips). Additionally, I intend not to risk more than 3% of my trading account for a particular trade. I also prefer (but am open to others) H1, H4 and daily timeframes. Now, unfortunately, backtesting is quite a time-consuming and exhausting feat. And I know for sure that I am going to be constantly tempted to stop, or give up, or slow down my progress. And I'm sure you might, or might have felt that way yourself. Well, if you happen to be like me and you are committed to becoming the person you need to become to trade well, please consider contacting me. Maybe we can share support and ideas and encouragement to keep going even when we're stuck. I'd also love to hear how you became interested in forex in the first place, and what you would want to do with the money you make. Anyway, just throwing this out there for anyone who may be interested. Thank you for reading, and I wish you all the best. Chris
Hey all, First time poster, long time lurker. Just learning until I think of useful/interesting post. I just finished Babypips school. No this isn’t another, “What do I do next?!” eager to consume posts. More just introducing myself and share methods as I progress and chat more in this sub. It’s been a super helpful research tool with just the sidebar alone, but the interactions are also generally positive and research engaged. Forex was on my list of active/sidehobby/internet ideas to try. (Along with selling on Ebay and learning/teaching languages) I’ve always been into stocks/finance and I’m open still open to continuing learning past forex into futures and/or cryptocurrency. Forex to me is kind of an intro to price action and charts for me. Also the physics of it all that I’m hoping to apply more as time goes on. Anyways , started forex 2 years ago. Saw I needed disposable income you could lose (which I didnt have at the time) and put it off. Now I’m about 3 months in with my rediscovery of it with a lot more financial cushion/discipline.I finished the babypips school and try to practice 25-45 mins a day of something forex related the last 90 days or so. Here is my routine and some things I”ve learned since starting. Demo Trading is overrated. And then it becomes the best thing ever. I’m gunna just go out and say it. IF you’re trading for 9 months on demo you should’ve stopped 8 months ago. I mean don’t get me wrong 9 months, that shows alot of persistence in your habits, but you’re spending time on a variable that doesn’t exchange certainty in the real system. I only even say this because you could be like me. Trade demo all this time then find out the leverage you wanted isn’t even available in your country. (U.S here) So I felt like a dummy from the jump, but that’s part of the learning curve you should be doing sooner rather than later. This does not mean fund your account fully. No, put just $200. I trade with my initial capitol @ $200 and I won’t add a penny more until I’ve developed a profitable system with what’s already in there. A good investment is a good investment and throwing more money doesn’t actually add value to the growth return on your investment.(In most cases) So what’s the big deal with Demo? Well for one you want to work with a system that’s tangible in your country. U.S is capped at 1:50 leverage. I don’t know other countries regulations but it’s something I wish someone told me to look out for before I started testing financial strategies. Another thing is the spreads are often very different from what you find in demo (attention scalpers out there) sometimes dramatically. (After NY close of the day /Weekends ) You have to implement all of these factors to your strategy. Now what is demo good for? Starting out! Learning how to set indicators, trades, stop losses and so on. I’d say 60 days max if you can’t donate much time. Even less than 60 days if you have more free time but then after that it’s time to get your feet wet. One other good thing about demo accounts is that it allows you to practice fundamentally different trading ideas out before trying them out on your actual account. An example would be a scalper trying a new position strategy he learned in demo to set some long term positions next year. I enjoy trading because it’s a discipline on your anxiety. When you deposit your first amount, any amount that's more than a new video game or dvd collection, your brain is going to fire off “Hey you bought something new that can make money let’s test it out! It could be making you money” You have to calm this voice first. IF you even can. This voice makes you check the charts 3x more than you did in demo and caused at least me to trade just so the money’s not going to waste. I lost 40% of my account the first week. I would’ve called myself mentally stable before this too. But that voice broke me and you have to confront it because it’s the impatience in all of us and causes you to force your view of the markets to fit your system. Demo is a great tool but shouldnt be held on longer than it’s purpose. Immersion This is going to be a little shorter than my last topic because this is more something everyone has to find and listen to. Don’t just study the same website or forum for forex everyday. Try to get a wide view of the financial markets as a whole and various media input. Subscribe to a couple good youtube channels maybe a visual representation of what you’ve been learning could help solidify it. Maybe a podcasts personality makes your brain react differently to topics where a bland textbook reading didnt excite you the same. Watch a documentary on trading one week and hell maybe even Wolf of Wall Street another week, whatever it is that gets your whole body involved in the feeling of trading so 1) you don’t get burned out on the topic and 2) you find more ways to connect with the information you find. Whether emotional or visually. Here are two recommendations of channels that help me break the norm of my study routine: “Two Blokes Trading” Podcast I discovered these guys a while back in a comment thread. I would recommend this podcast to beginners because you can start from the very beginning of their series and learn with them. They’re young, enthusiastic and open to exploring alot of areas to trading and different philosophies. So sometimes you can find gems in subjects you didn’t expect to encounter. They also bring in advisors and brokerage managers to feature on their subjects. And it’s not all forex focused. Check them out: http://twoblokestrading.com/podcast-episodes/ Barry Burns “Top Dog Trading” Barry Burns I like because you have him walking you through the charts on youtube. One of the few videos I watched on Price action were by him where the lightbulb went off. He offers a great free resource and sometimes I even feel guilty getting it on youtube for free before sharing it because it feels like the things he touches on and how he explains them, even paid classes probably couldn’t get right. He has so many videos on different markets and how to read them just apply them to the type of trader you are. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcjyImdSWDTCGCa7G24faIQ Routine ( final topic on this post) So every week I try to keep a basic routine of forex and ways to practice. I try to wake up early as I’m on the Pacific Coast so I get up 2 hours early before I have to head to work. 20-30 mins of this time I do something related to forex education. The rest of the time I gather my foundation for the week and arrange goals / meditate/ journal. I’ll look at the charts, when I still had Babypips to finish I’d set a time and study through what I could of the course through that time. Now that I’m finished I’ll either check this sub, watch a video/podcast or try to read something related fundamentally to trading or finance. (I’d like to get some more book ideas about trading and it’s psychology) So that’s one habit. You’ve got to be able to at least schedule 20-45 minutes a day to consistent study + practice time to acquire new skills. 20 minutes uninterrupted is enough. Wake up early if you have to. Then throughout the day you’ll find time to reflect or research more and soon the time will start to add up. This also works on the other extreme too. If you have alot of free time I’d say starting out 1 hour to 2 hours max is what you should dedicate to studying. Forex is a very mentally fatiguing process skill. You’ve got to let your brain recharge (need those MP potions it seems) the whole currency system is heavy and complex enough that starting from scratch you couldn’t learn everything in 24 hours straight. I’d say even a week straight wouldn’t work. It takes time and a habitual familiarity. It’s not dissimilar to learning a language. Where concepts become stacked on a foundation of understanding to be acted upon through your day to day. Even if you can name all the working parts, experience build with how much time you think in that language per day. There’s a reason I chose the word “Immersion” for my second topic. Moving along. Another part of my routine is backtesting 40-50 trades a week of my strongest system. This equates to a little under 10 trades a day. I completely journal and track profits like they were live. Some suggest using a simulator, while that is a great practice for timing entries, I’ve found just using the Metatrader 4 Desktop and using the F12 key to progress forward one tick at a time has been sufficient for my backtesting needs. Backtesting gives you an opportunity to practice way more trades in a week than live session will be able to provide. I’m using M15 - H1 intraday strategies and maybe pull off 5-6 trades a week. BUT I practice 10x that amount per week. Soon you’ll find your live performance is really only a display of how your last week backtesting went. It’s like football practice for the gameday. Now which system I test varies, like I said I’ll try my strongest, but that changes. Just grab any system you think you can pull off and backtest it. Babypips gave me my first few, then I created some ridiculous ones, but over time your experience of a system and how to get them to work for you grows by running test trades. Systems I’ve found and backtested that are online are: the “So Easy It’s Ridiculous” system and the Cowabunga System, both found on babypips and a simple google search. Easy. I know, and really a system is just supposed to make having trading decisions easier for you. But your participation and exit are equally important. Can you follow easy rules you or others make? No questions asked? So that concludes my post. I hope in the future when I’ve backtested 1,000 trades I can post some of my personal systems I’ve followed, right now they feel to amateur to even share. I am the humble fool, so any ideas on my style or feedback on where I should head are greatly appreciated. I’m open to questions and dialogue so feel free to send a PM or comment. Hearing from other traders is the reason I even started this account to post and interact. This post and future ones I have planned are kind of a new element I wanted to try of journaling that allows me some social accountability and feedback from a community rather than all my entries being hoarded in my notebooks, so my apologies if it’s more wordy than usual on here. Thanks everyone and have fun! -AP TL:DR Just browse over the bold sections
On the development and confidence on your trading systems.
While I've never traded live before and still consider myself a total newbie, I've read plenty of books related to trading and forex in particular and have been demo trading for almost 6 monts both with mt4 and cTrader (and made a couple EAs and algos, since I have a CS background). I've blown more demo accounts than I can remember... From what I read (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) there are only two things you need in order to make it in forex: solid money management and a trading strategy with an edge. The only thing I couldn't find yet on any book is: How do you develop such a trading strategy? I don't want to know the secret sauce (when to go long or short), just the reasoning behind those strategies whether they're profitable or not. Is it just trial and error? Let's try to buy EURUSD when price goes above SMA14 on M15... (Backtests over a period of two years. Blows account.) Well, it didn't work. How about trying with H1?... (Back to backtesting...) Or is it that eventually you develop some kind of intuition about how markets are behaving and some things might work better that others? And just try those until it works? (Purposely leaving aside the discussion about the amount of backtesting you feel comfortable with before going live. I believe that deserves a thread on it's own) I'd love to hear from both technical and fundamental traders. UPDATE: A couple of days after posting this question, I came across a series of articles that describe one possible way to approach the development of a trading system: Build Better Strategies! Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems Build Better Strategies! Part 3: The Development Process
A Forensic Approach to Trading: Examining the FOMC release.
It's a truism in trading that your strategies are worthless unless they pass the test of the market. They either make money in the long run, or they don't. We have a hard, factual standard we can hold matters to. When it comes to theories about what is happening in the market, it's much harder to apply similar standards because many things don't appear on the charts. However, this often means we fail to even try. This is bad practice. We should be willing to challenge our own, and other's theories about the market, as well as investigate out-of-the-box theories, by comparing them to available chart evidence. Edit: squitstoomuch has drawn my attention to the fact that my analysis and understanding of the situation has some serious, if not fatal flaws. Rather than delete the post, I'll leave it up because looking at other people's mistakes is often useful, and it's still a good idea to compare your ideas to the charts and see if the market validates them. Grossly incorrect stuff has strike throughs, the rest still stands. For example, a very common analysis you will hear after the combination of rate decision and Governor press conference is that the overall direction of movement can be accounted for by what was said in the conference. This is something you can assess by looking at the charts. Proposition 1: The USD fell largely due to Yellen's comments implying future rate trajectories Consider: M1 EURUSD http://i.imgur.com/MS7ceQf.png M1 USDJPY http://i.imgur.com/JeHI8qw.png You can see that the majority of the price movement against the USD happens within the first ten minutes after the rate release, and within that, the majority of the move happened within the first minute. Logic dictates that NONE of this movement was related to the content of the speech, simply because the speech had not been given yet. You can also see that although there was movement throughout the speech, it managed to only depress the USD an additional third compared to the rate release. How you choose to interpret this is up to you, but at least you can now frame the 'it was Yellen's speech that did it' theories in the context of some irrefutable evidence. My personal interpretation is that whilst the speech content strongly influences price, and did further depress the USD, it was not the original motivator for the drop. Nor was it the main determinant of the magnitude of the drop in the value of the USD, because both of those happened before she ever opened her mouth. ~~ Let's look at some more propositions. Proposition 2: You should trade what happened last time USDJPY H1 chart from 14th December 2016, the previous time rates were raised. FOMC raises Fed Fund Rate, USD goes: http://i.imgur.com/qL7upT7.png ... up. So if you had simply looked at what happened last time, and then bought this time, you would have lost money. I'm going to strongly recommend that nobody short the USD for the next rate hike just because it went down this time! Proposition 3: You could have just predicted the movement on technicals. Well... http://i.imgur.com/zYOlVmw.png ... as it turns out, one of the most basic, elementary technical strategies (trendline + horizontal resistance) would have gotten you in nicely this time, at least on USDJPY. The EURUSD set-up was a bit more advanced, but still straightforward in the context of the essentially guaranteed rate decision. http://i.imgur.com/L8B7s1K.png Interestingly, pivot points perfectly predicted the extent of the day's price movement this time round. USDJPY (D) http://i.imgur.com/emY42Nn.png EURUSD (H1) http://i.imgur.com/fD8UDss.png (Note the different timeframes. This may just be a case of coincidence, but I will say that ever since I put them on my charts, they've been very useful for exactly this sort of thing: how far the market will go before a pause or a retrace). Proposition 4: the market is irrational and unpredictable I don't have any strong evidence to disprove this, but I will say that the NFP price action was a big red flag that something like this was going to happen on FOMC day, and that there are clear, strongly repeatable analytical approaches that predicted an outcome like this. Many people were not the least bit surprised. . Finally, I'd like to suggest that this is much more than just "pricing in". I don't have the time nor patience to go through my archives and dig out every "priced in" economic release that I've ever tried to trade, so I'll leave the evidence hunt for those more curious. But in my experience, when the market has priced an event in, and that event happens, the usual result is ... nothing. This is what 'pricing in' means, that price is already correct in regards to that information. If anything actually happens, it's usually counter-intuitive, and that means that the big banks are using the event to hustle price about. As a footnote, that's not the only way they hustle price. One thing they also like to use talking heads to influence market sentiment: http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-sachs-see-a-second-fed-hike-in-june-20170310 (This bulletin is saying there will be faster rate hikes, ie investors should buy USD. You might wonder why Goldman would risk their reputation by putting their name behind directions they're not trading, and the easy answer is that nobody remembers these bulletins, but everyone remembers the end of year profits of the bank. Bank mouthpieces aren't there to help the clients, they're there to help the bank)
I want to learn how to predict the market on charts...I am a pattern trader and i dont know how to chart anything.
I posted THIS before. If you read through it you can see that i am a pattern trader (not sure if this is the correct term for it) but that is how i trade and for the most part i am profitable and it works, BUT i want to learn what i see here, where people actually post their analysis on WHY they think a certain pair is going to move up or down and post it on the chart as to why. (NOTE: THE BELOW IS FROM A COMMENT I POSTED 23 DAYS AGO) My strategy is: For example right now I have a Buy on the EURUSD for .01 I am currently losing -8.14 at BUY 1.04730 I know when losing anything in the 7 dollar range to sell on my bigger account. It doesnt really involve time frames much as it does overall movement of a currency, currently the EURUSD is moving down. So thats where im going. I have 1 sell lot at 7 dollars at 1.04018 currently at $476 blue I have 1 sell lot at 6 dollars at 1.03980 currently at $1.92 Blue I have 1 sell lot at 5 dollars at 1.03896 currently at -$185 red I have 1 sell lot at 4 dollars at 1.03940 currently at $24 blue I have 1 sell lot at 3 dollars at 1.03944 currently at $33 blue I have 1 sell lot at 2 dollars at 1.03865 currently at -$136 red I have 1 sell lot at 1 dollar at 1.03833 currently at -$95 red my initital buy was at 1.04730, which is how i recognize the pattern. currently up $203 with movement for shorting The M30 and H1 frame are at peak so im expecting it to go back down to me losing about -$11.00 peak low on the smaller account because it has already hit that today for resistance so whatever that makes me for the day and im out (NOTE: THE ABOVE WAS FROM A COMMENT I POSTED 23 DAYS AGO) EDIT 1: Its more of a personal technique which i found works like 80-90% of the time for me so i understand why it wouldn't work for you. At least not immediately. I've been doing this for over 6 months so i have a bit more experience with this under my belt, and while im not an experienced Forex trader whatsoever. I feel like i have found what works for me. I hope what i wrote down help id take screenshots but im working at the moment What i want to learn is THIS Do i just go around www.dailyFX.com and see what they do or what programs do you use for those lines, how do you make an estimate of where exactly to buy and sell. Where you think the direction is moving and when you think its going to stop. TL;DR want to learn how to chart analysis for pairs, including exact BUY numbers, SELL numbers and where it is going to stop. Currently pattern trader. Dont use charts to analyze much apart from generic direction. Teach me senpais
Sorry for the wall of text, but I hope it can give confidence to other new members and maybe pointers or "you are wrong change this" from the experienced ones here. I will start by saying I am very new to Forex by all means. I know some people that sit on demo accounts for 6+ months before they even think about touching a real money account. I had my demo account for ~2 days before I realized that using a demo account led me to a lack of care in my learning or developing a strategy. No real money to lose, no real incentive to focus and practice. With that said, I have been actively trading for about 9 days, and made about 250 trades (I have been busy). I have never crept above a 0.04 lot size, and my starting balance was $300. This was all money I made from the stock market that I withdrew to "tinker" with Forex because stocks just weren't my thing. By the end of the 4th day, I was feeling very discouraged, I was down to ~$240, I was embarrassed to share that fact with my wife after I had so much excitement to start in on this hobby. By day 7, I was down to $178, and I realized that I was clueless and impulsive/impatient (see my previous thread on this sub asking for help). My problem was that I was seeing a trend, jumping in the pair to try and ride the way at the wrong time, usually using market price entries, and panicking when the pips went negative (although afterward always continuing to trend, no patience, bad entries/analysis) and I would ditch the trade for a loss or set a tight SL that didn't allow for the normal give/take nature of the trend. This is day 10, I am starting to develop a very personalized approach to how I choose my trades. I am mainly looking at the stoch, RSI, volumes, and occasionally SAR before I choose my trades. I am still very impatient, but I try to use a H1 chart for the general trend, and move to M30 to find out if it is a good entry or if I should give it 15-20 minutes to enter (stoch crosses, RSI range judgment). See the screenshot below, if the overall trend is bullish, I will wait for stoch to reach the "bottom" and cross, while RSI remains at, over or near 70, and usually using volume as a judgment of how quickly I should expect to see pips moving (this is just a guess at how volumes work, I assume higher volume = more trades, can't be too far off, just too busy to research and confirm). For this screenshot, I wouldn't enter here (RSI high, upward trend, but stoch is on a down slope, i would wait for this to reach a bottom and cross to enter). This is where I am beginning to learn patience, as well. Currently I am too nervous to ride the trend wave, and I have begun utilizing the "trailing stop" to secure profits as I learn, kind of like training wheels. The majority of my trades hit my trailing stop of 20-50 points depending on how confident I am in the trade. http://i.imgur.com/e0Imco8.png With this strategy, I have come back from my deficit of $178 and the account is currently sitting at $216. This may not seem like a lot, but 90%+ of my trades are <$1 (lot sizes usually 0.01-0.03). It has been a long climb but my success rate in the last two days has been tremendous when I follow my rules. I still make stupid impulse trades (like this morning in the McDonalds drivethru, got too excited when I saw GBPUSD climbing and jumped in at the wrong time and lost $0.06). Below are my trades over the last 2 days as I try to refine myself further and be smarter. A few big blunders but I have only been trading for 9 days so I have a ton to learn and hopefully continue to grow and incorporate techniques to make my trades more solid and gain confidence when I click that confirm button. http://i.imgur.com/cju548M.png
Hey everyone, I've been trying a few different Forex strategies with MQL4 on the Metatrader platform. I've decided to try manual trades on the H1 timeframe to see what works. If I get something to work, I'll code that back into MQL4. In the meantime, I'd like to have a notification sent to my phone (push, text, or email) when a trade closes. This way, I won't have to keep checking if the trade is still open. Currently, I have it set up with take profit or stop loss triggering trade closes. I don't see any simple functions through the Android app and will check out the desktop software later. I do know it's possible to forward notifications from the desktop to mobile. I just don't know if I'll have to set up some EA to send an email on a trade closure.
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